New Data Shows ChatGPT's Growing Power as a Shopping Assistant (28% YoY Increase)

The Data Behind AI's Shopping Revolution

New reports from Apptopia and Adobe have revealed something critical about how people are shopping this holiday season: AI assistants are becoming a major discovery channel for retail.

But the data also reveals an important truth about who benefits from this shift.

The Headline Numbers

According to Apptopia's analysis of Black Friday weekend (Thanksgiving through Sunday):

ChatGPT referrals to retailer mobile apps increased 28% year-over-year

That's a significant jump in just 12 months. But the data gets even more interesting when you look at Adobe's separate analysis:

AI traffic to U.S. retail sites increased by 805% on Black Friday

AI traffic on Cyber Monday increased by 670%

During the full holiday season (Nov 1 - Dec 1), AI traffic is up 760%

Perhaps most importantly: Shoppers who landed on retail sites from AI chatbots were 38% more likely to make a purchase.

These aren't small numbers. This is a fundamental shift in consumer behavior.

The "Amazon-Walmart" Problem
Here's where the data gets concerning for smaller retailers.

Apptopia found that ChatGPT referrals are heavily concentrated among e-commerce giants:

Amazon's share of ChatGPT referrals: 54% (up from 40.5% in 2024)

Walmart's share of ChatGPT referrals: 14.9% (up from 2.7% in 2024)

That means nearly 70% of all ChatGPT shopping referrals go to just two companies.

This is the "rich get richer" dynamic playing out in AI-powered search.

Why This Is Happening
AI models like ChatGPT prioritize:

Established authority: Amazon and Walmart have decades of customer data and reviews
Trust signals: Users recognize these brands and feel confident in AI recommendations
Structured data: These sites have comprehensive product catalogs, pricing, and availability information
When an AI model recommends a product, it's drawing from the most visible, most structured, most authoritative sources online.

Small retailers without strong digital presence are being left out of the AI conversation entirely.

The Context: How Small Is AI's Slice?

Despite the triple-digit growth, it's important to understand the context.

Apptopia noted that ChatGPT's referrals to e-commerce apps were only 0.82% of all ChatGPT sessions on Black Friday (up from 0.64% last year).

This means AI-powered shopping is still in its early stages. But the growth trajectory—28% to 805% year-over-year—suggests we're at the beginning of a massive shift.

The retailers who build AI visibility now will be the ones who capture this market as it scales.

What the 38% Higher Conversion Rate Means

Adobe's finding that AI-referred shoppers are 38% more likely to purchase is perhaps the most important data point.

This tells us that AI recommendations aren't just driving traffic—they're driving qualified traffic.

When someone asks ChatGPT "what are the best headphones for working from home?" and clicks through to a recommendation:

• They have purchase intent
• They trust the AI's suggestion
• They're closer to buying than the average browser

This is high-intent traffic. And it's going to the brands that are visible in AI responses.

How Retailers Can Respond

Based on this data, here are three immediate actions:

1. Audit Your AI Visibility

Test how your brand appears in ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Gemini:

• "Who are the best [your product category]?"
• "What's the difference between [your brand] and [competitor]?"
• "Where should I buy [your product type]?"

If you're not in the answer, you're not in the conversation.

2. Build Authority Beyond Your Own Site

Remember: AI models pull from across the web, not just your website.

You need visibility on:

• Review sites
• Industry publications
• Comparison articles
• Forum discussions
• Social media mentions

Every third-party mention is a signal that AI models incorporate.

3. Structure Content for AI Consumption

Optimize your product content specifically for how AI models read:

• Clear product hierarchies and categories
• Comprehensive FAQ sections
• Detailed specifications and comparisons
• Customer reviews and ratings
• Availability and pricing data

AI models prioritize well-structured, authoritative content.

The Bottom Line

The data is clear: AI-powered shopping is growing rapidly (28-805% depending on the metric), and it's driving higher-quality traffic (38% more likely to convert).

But the benefits are currently concentrated among the giants.

The retailers who act now to build AI visibility will capture this growth as it scales. Those who wait will find themselves competing for scraps from Amazon and Walmart's table.

The question isn't whether AI will impact your retail business. The question is: will you be in the AI's answer?